Debiasing přehnaně sebevědomých intuitivních predikcí

The planning fallacy is a tendency to make overconfident time predictions. This fallacy may result from neglect of distributional data. When people make intuitive predictions they ignore the distribution of previous time estimates, past experiences and knowledge relevant for the currently made prediction, resulting in flawed judgement. Planning fallacy was first documented over four decades ago, yet, researchers are still seeking ways to mitigate this bias. Goals of the proposed project are threefold. First, construct and test inexpensive interventions which might debias individual's overly optimistic time predictions. Second, provide novel empirical evidence on the different debiasing methods. The third goal is to examine the limits and spillover effects of used debiasing methods, namely nudges and training-like boost interventions.